Jeera prices saw a marginal uptick of 0.15% to settle at 22700, driven by concerns over increasing arrivals in the market, particularly in Rajkot Mandi. However, the downside was limited as global buyers continued to prefer Indian jeera amidst tightening global supplies. With daily arrivals ranging from 10000 to 12000 bags in Rajkot Mandi, surpassing current demand levels, the market faced pressure from increased supply. New arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan further exacerbated the situation, with sowing areas witnessing significant expansion due to favourable prices and weather conditions. The total production of cumin in Gujarat is estimated to reach a new record of 4.08 lakh tonnes, representing a substantial increase from previous years.
Similarly, Rajasthan also reported a 53% increase in cumin production, resulting in a doubling of overall production in major cumin-producing areas of India compared to the previous year. Despite the anticipated increase in production, trade analysts expect a significant rise in cumin exports, projected to reach about 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024. However, Jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2024 experienced a decline of 23.75% compared to the same period in the previous year, reflecting challenges in the export market amidst volatile domestic prices.
Despite the decline in exports, technical indicators suggest short covering in the market, with a drop in open interest by -3.42% and prices rising by 35 rupees. Support for Jeera is anticipated at 22600, with potential downside targets at 22510, while resistance levels may manifest around 22810, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing of 22930.